Closed Land Transaction – 82 Lots within the Alberhill Ranch Master Planned Community in Lake Elsinore

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IRVINE, CA, SEPTEMBER 1, 2016 — The Irvine office of Land Advisors Organization, a premier nationwide land brokerage firm, announced today the successful closing of Alberhill Ranch 82 Lots within the Alberhill Ranch Master Planned Community. Alberhill Ranch 82 Lots is located west of Interstate 15 at the southeast corner of Lake Street and Alberhill Ranch Road in the City of Lake Elsinore, Riverside County, California.

Land Advisors Organization brokers R. Jeffrey Spindler, F. Brian Carricaburu, Ian T. Sinderhoff, and Andrew Sinderhoff negotiated the transaction, representing the buyer and seller.

The lots were sold by Castle and Cooke Alberhill Home Building, Inc. and was purchased by KB Home. KB Home is looking to continue the success of its two previous projects within the Alberhill Ranch Community, Terraces I and Terraces II. Alberhill Ranch is a 1,853-acre development with approximately 3,705 residential units and over 600 acres dedicated to open space with walking trails, parks, and schools.

“Affordability has been a primary concern for the public homebuilders in the Inland Empire over the last couple of years. KB Home has been very successful in Lake Elsinore with their Terraces community in Alberhill Ranch. These home sites with excellent views of the lake and surrounding hillsides and generous 6,000 square foot pads will allow them to continue that success. Alberhill Ranch is a premier master-planned community sitting atop the hills north of the lake with an existing pool and recreation center, proposed commercial, and planned elementary school,” said Brian Carricaburu, Founding Principal at Land Advisors Organization.

For additional information regarding this transaction and land trends occurring in the Riverside County area, contact F. Brian Carricaburu: bcarricaburu@landadvisors.com / (949) 656-8002

Garvey Square – Closed Deal in San Gabriel Valley

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Garvey Square

July 5, 2016 (Pasadena, California) – The Los Angeles Infill Team of Land Advisors Organization, the nation’s largest real estate brokerage firm focused exclusively on land, is pleased to announce the successful closing of Garvey Square, a 102-unit townhome community in the San Gabriel Valley. The property is located on the northeast corner of Garvey Avenue and Peck Road in El Monte, California.

Land Advisors Organization represented LaTerra Development, LLC, a privately owned real estate investment and development company, in the sale of Garvey Square to TRI Pointe Homes, one of the largest public home builders on the West Coast.

This townhome community will consist of homes ranging between 1,126 and 1,821 square feet. The project also benefits from over 32,000 square feet of common area open space for the enjoyment of future residents.

“As one of the last few infill development sites in this part of San Gabriel Valley, Garvey Square will be a remarkable place for residents seeking to live within close proximity to the economically and culturally vibrant cities of Pasadena, Arcadia, and Downtown Los Angeles. Residents will enjoy access to the best restaurants, shops, employment, and entertainment centers the San Gabriel Valley and Los Angeles have to offer” says Richard Byrd, Senior Vice President at Land Advisors Organization.

For more information about Garvey Square, please contact Richard Byrd x13, Tim Barden x11, or Chris Gomez-Ortigoza x14 at (626)376-9840. For more information about Land Advisors Organization, please visit us at www.landadvisors.com.

The Land Advisors Organization specializes in the innovative brokerage of land and improved property through deep market insight and unparalleled service to owners and consumers of real estate. With an exclusive focus on land-related assets, we integrate comprehensive information, cutting-edge mapping technology and the knowledge and experience of highly specialized professionals to help our clients identify and capitalize on valuable opportunities in all kinds of economic environments. The Land Advisors Organization employs a true collaborative brokerage model with offices located in Arizona, California, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Florida, Texas, Utah, and Washington.

Related Links

LA Business Journal

Thank you from Land Advisors Organization California Division!

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LandAdvisorsCA1B2014TotalConsiderationClick on image to enlarge

 

Landmark Capital Advisors Announces Expansion and Rebranding

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Building on the success of raising equity and debt for homebuilders and land developers, the Principals of Landmark Capital, previously Land Advisors Capital of California, are pleased to announce a new appointment and a corporate rebranding to reflect our expanded focus into the commercial sector. This broader platform is:

  • Adept at complicated transactions including entitlement, ground-up construction, partnership recapitalizations and adaptive re-use projects
  • Highly experienced at raising and structuring equity from a diverse array of sources, including difficult to access HNW and family office investors

Join us in welcoming David Kidder as managing director, joining Steve Sims and Adam Deermount as part of our corporate expansion.

VIEW PRESS RELEASE HERE

http://landmarkcapitaladvisors.com/

Link

SAN DIEGO NEWSLETTER 3rd Quarter 2014

The San Diego market remains strong in Q3 2014.  Coastal prices for lots and homes are at or near record highs.  All indications are for continued strength for the foreseeable future based on strengthening job growth and low-interest rates.

New Home Trends

San Diego County currently has 57 actively selling communities with a majority (33%) of the units being offered as attached product. Of the 21 builders in the San Diego market, Standard Pacific and Shea Homes each have 9 actively selling communities making them the most active builders. Sales per month are averaging 2.74 per development. The average price per square foot is $285. Average square feet is 2,810.

SD Newsletter New Home TrendsTo view the entire San Diego Newsletter click on the following link: San Diego Newsletter 3rd Quarter 2014

Want to receive our San Diego Newsletter every quarter?  Email Katie Spitznagel at kspitznagel@landadvisors.com to be added to the distribution list.

 

Source: David Landes, Marketing Consultant, (858) 568-7428 ext.11 and Devin Jenkins, Marketing Consultant, (858) 568-7428 ext.13

 

Master-Planned Project in the Inland Empire Marketed by LAO Makes Progress for a Year-end Close…

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The Arantine Hills master-planned project in the City of Corona continues to move closer to reality. The project went under contract with The New Home Company in the 4th quarter of 2013 and is expected to close in December of this year. The New Home Company entered a joint venture with Tricon Capital Group, a Canadian real estate investment company, to provide acquisition financing and develop the community. They intend to re-plan and re-entitle the 276-acre project to include 1,300 homes, parks, and open space. They expect to break ground in 2016 to begin selling lots and new homes.

LAO is looking forward to a successful consummation of the transaction with The New Home Company and are very pleased in their efforts to develop this exciting new community in Corona.

Related links:

Wall Street Journal

The New Home Company Announces Planned Acquisition of Master Planned Community in Southern California

Press Enterprise

Corona housing development back on the drawing board

A Premier In-Fill Development Opportunity Featuring 167 Acres in Oakland Trades Hands in a Red-Hot Bay Area Land Market

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May 9, 2014 (Irvine, California) – The California Division of the Land Advisors Organization is pleased to announce the closing of Oak Knoll, a premier hillside development opportunity featuring 167 acres in Oakland, California. The asset sale was brokered on behalf of LV Oak Knoll LLC, the Seller, by Terry Ruckle and Steve Reilly of the Land Advisors Organization.

Land Advisors generated 20 offers for the property, evidence of intense competition for Bay Area residential development projects.

The Oak Knoll property is unique in the market due to its ability to provide desperately-needed new single-family homes, significant natural open space, trails and parks, and direct access to Interstate 580 at Mountain Boulevard.  With its in-fill location, the Oak Knoll property is well-positioned to provide a wide range of housing options to the East Bay Area.  Oak Knoll offers one of the rarest residential development opportunities remaining in the Western United States.

For more information about Oak Knoll, please contact Terry Ruckle, Co-Founding Principal and Oak Knoll Marketing Team Lead, at truckle@landadvisors.com or Steve Reilly, Senior Marketing Consultant, at sreilly@landadvisors.com.  For more information about Land Advisors Organization, please visit http://www.landadvisors.com or contact Tom Reimers at (949) 852-8288 ext. 28.

About Land Advisors Organization:

Land Advisors Organization specializes in innovative land brokerage through deep market insight and unparalleled client relationships. With an exclusive focus on land, Land Advisors Organization integrates current comprehensive information, cutting-edge technology and geographically specialized professionals to help our clients identify and capitalize on valuable opportunities in all kinds of economic environments.  The Land Advisors Organization employs a true collaborative brokerage model with offices located throughout Arizona, California, Florida, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Texas.

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 Questions or Comments? Contact us by filling out the form below:

 

Otay Ranch Property Sold

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Moller plans 1,000 homes starting about 2016 overlooking east side of Otay Lake

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A section of property from Otay Ranch’s master-planned community — 13A — overlooking Otay Lakes in eastern Chula Vista has been sold for $21 million with up to 1,007 homes planned to start construction in about two years.

The buyer was Moller Otay Lakes Investment and the seller, Otay Village (San Diego) ASLI V. David Landes and Greg Vogel represented the seller and the buyers represented themselves.

Landes said once development details have been completed, construction can begin on both executive and workforce housing.

East of the Moller property is Village 13B, overseen by Baldwin & Sons. It is projected to include about 900 homes, a 200-room resort hotel and up to 20,000 square feet of commercial space.

Stephen Haase, Baldwin’s senior vice president for forward planning, said Village 13B likely will follow by one or two years the westerly village. Both sections are currently located in unincorporated land and require approval from the county, possibly next year.

Otay Ranch, started in the 1980s, is about half way to completion, Haase said, with about 15,000 more homes planned on several more villages.

“We know we have demand because of population and household growth,” Haase said, “but it will be more measured than in the 2000s.”

Article published April 24, 2014 by Roger Showley at U-T San Diego

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2014/apr/24/otay-ranch-land-sale-moller/

For more information please contact David Landes at (858) 568-7428 or Greg Vogel at (480) 483-8100

Land Prices Are Not the Only Thing Rising….

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Ever heard of someone saying “when things are on a roll…enjoy it while it lasts, ‘cause it never does.” Well, I guess you could apply the same logic to interest rates.

Looking at how the tear land values have been in the last 12 months, it seems things are starting to cool off and the industry is taking a collective breath.  When the Federal Reserve Chairman speaks and hints at future actions regarding interest rates, the market is clearly listening.  In case anyone missed it, interest rates have risen for the better part of 100 basis points since May causing new home sales to slow and robbing buyers of purchase power, which illustrates that the housing recovery is still fragile and changes need to be addressed delicately as we move forward.  That being said, I think home buyers are realizing that low-interest rates will not last forever and they should engage while they can.

Link: http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2013/07/16/rising-mortgage-rates-home-builders-shrug-them-off/

Source: Ryan Long, Senior Marketing Consultant, (916) 784-3329 ext. 16

San Diego County: A Shortage of Land in a Housing Market Screaming For Inventory

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You don’t have to be a whiz at Economics 101 to understand the supply and demand imbalance affecting available housing and developable land in San Diego County.  You only need to drive around town or talk to neighbors in order to understand that the County is poised to experience a crises with respect to finding available housing to meet the demand.

According to the San Diego Association of Governments, the pace of residential building permits in San Diego County over the last five years is about half of what the region now needs each year (12,000 units needed annually).  In addition, only approximately 4,300 resale homes are currently on the market within San Diego County – a four year low according to numbers from the local Realtors Association.  A six month supply of housing inventory has historically been associated with a balance in supply and demand.

Currently, there is less than a two month supply of housing inventory in San Diego County!

Building Permit Chart

The scarcity of housing supply has fueled double-digit annual increases in the median price of homes sold in San Diego County in each of the past seven months, according to Data Quick based in La Jolla.  Based upon a recent per square footage analysis from the Greater San Diego Association of Realtors, Single Family Home prices have risen 14% from a year ago and Condominium/Townhouse resale values have skyrocketed 21%.

According to Data Quick, the 19% gain in the price of homes sold in March 2013 was the highest annual gain seen since January of 2005 (a few months before the peak in home values prior to the recently past recession).

Would-be buyers active in the resale market must compete with a significant percentage of “all cash” buyers (now accounting for approximately a third of all transactions).  Thus, there is amped up demand for new homes which once represented one sale for every four to six resales.  New home sales made up only 7% of total residential home sales in San Diego County in March 2013.  The drop in market share shows that fewer homes are being constructed and fewer acres of developable land are available for builders.

Future demand for housing may only increase as unemployment eases and low interest rates (now below 4%) jump start throngs of current renters who understand that their total monthly obligations for a condominium or townhome are likely now less then the rent they are paying each month.

As a result, LAO is now seeing unprecedented demand for both entitled and un-entitled subdivision land throughout the greater San Diego Metropolitan Area.

Source: Bob McFarland, Marketing Consultant, (858) 568-7428

Bay Area – Land Prices Have Gone Through the Roof!

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Since the 2011 trough in land prices, the worst markets in the Bay Area have seen a significant increase in lot prices – an average of about 44%. As the available land in the core markets has dwindled, builders have turned to the tertiary markets that were once off the radar. This trend will likely continue in areas such as the Central Valley and Monterey and Sonoma Counties. Although they may be considered unbuildable zones today, they will see a similar lot appreciation over the next few years as builders move farther out of the core to build.

Lot Price Appreciation for a 5,000 SF lot

Oakley 53.33%
Antioch 53.13%
Pittsburg 51.52%
Martinez 51.11%
Brentwood 48.57%
Livermore 46.67%
Mountain View 46.67%
Sunnyvale 46.43%
Hayward 46.15%
San Jose 45.45%
Fremont 40.00%
Hercules 37.14%
Concord 33.93%
Gilroy 33.33%
Dublin 30.00%

Source: Steve Reilly, Marketing Consultant, (925) 368-3128

NorCal – Where’s the Inventory?

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I keep reading that re-sale inventory is at historic lows and there are bidding wars on the small amount of re-sales that are sprinkled throughout the marketplace. This is good news on several fronts. The first being that pricing for both new home and re-sales are rising….and quickly I might add. The second is that people who are getting back into the market for a home are being beat out by all cash, quick close investors on re-sale inventory and therefore being directed to find homes from the builders. Finally, the builders themselves are running low on ready to build lots (inventory) and scrambling to backfill the demand which equates to land prices that are skyrocketing (30%+ increases in a matter of weeks depending on the market). Let’s hope that we find a normalcy in the market so we can enjoy the bull market ride in housing and land.

Links:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/03/analysts-increase-2013-house-price.html#uh9KivlxCKGG4QDr.99
http://www.sacbee.com/2013/03/26/5292593/bidding-wars-breaking-out-in-sacramentos.html

Source: Ryan Long, Senior Marketing Consultant, (916) 784-3329 ext. 16

New Home Sales in Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo County Pick Up The Pace!

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New Home Closings in San Luis Obispo Climb According to Newest Data, Prices Steady

Posted on: Mar 07, 2013 07:33:55 AM

In the San Luis Obispo, CA market, closings of new homes jumped year-over-year in December, and the increase was greater than November 2012. New home closings moved from 12 a year earlier to 52 after the figure moved from eight in November 2011 to 15 in November 2012.

A total of 154 new homes were sold during the 12 months that ended in December, up from 114 for the year that ended in November.

New home closings were 52 out of 420 total closings, making up 12.4%. This is up on a percentage basis from 12 of 366 a year earlier. Following a year-over-year increase in November, closings of new and existing homes also rose year-over-year in December.

Pricing and Mortgage Trends
The average per-unit price of new homes was $442,185 in December 2012, unchanged from a year ago. This came after a 5.0% decline in November from a year earlier.

Average mortgage size on new homes fell from $339,237 to $287,378. Average mortgage size on new homes went from $290,161 in November 2011 to $379,406 in November 2012. For new home closings, the percentage of the sale price that was being financed slid 11.7 percentage points year-over-year to 65.0% in December 2012. In November 2012, there was a 23.3 percentage point surge from a year earlier.

Other Market Trends
The share of new home closings made up by attached units has risen while the share belonging to single-family homes has fallen. Attached closings made up six of 52 new home closings after accounting for one of 12 a year earlier. Meanwhile, single-family homes made up 46 of 52 new home closings after making up 11 of 12 a year earlier.

The average unit size of newly sold homes fell from 2,069 square feet a year earlier to 1,767 square feet.

Foreclosures and real estate owned (REO) closings continued to drop from a year earlier in December, but did not appear to be dragging the market. Out of all existing home closings, foreclosures combined with REO closings accounted for 23.1% of closings, below 48.3% a year earlier. The percentage of existing home closings involving foreclosures dipped to 9.5% in December from 17.8% a year earlier while REO closings as a percentage of existing home closings declined to 13.6% from 30.5% a year earlier.

Source: Housing Intelligence

New Home Sales and Prices Both Increase in Santa Barbara According to Recent Data

Posted on: Mar 07, 2013 07:34:03 AM

The Santa Barbara, CA market saw a rise in new home closings in December year-over-year, and the increase was greater than November 2012. New home closings moved from six a year earlier to 40 after the figure moved from nine in November 2011 to 19 in November 2012.

A total of 192 new homes were sold during the 12 months that ended in December, up from 158 for the year that ended in November.

New home closings were 40 of the 419 total closings, up on a percentage basis from six of 429 a year earlier. Following a year-over-year rise in November, closings of new and existing homes slipped year-over-year in December.

Pricing and Mortgage Trends
The average per-unit price of new homes was $642,463 in December 2012, up from $635,250 a year ago. This followed a 34.9% decline in November from a year earlier.

Average mortgage size on new homes increased to $434,179 from $417,104 last year. It went from $353,984 to $350,950 from November 2011 to November 2012. Of the overall sale price, the percentage that was being financed rose 1.9 percentage points year-over-year to 67.6% in December 2012. This was another boost after November 2012 when there was a 28.1 percentage point rise from a year earlier.

Other Market Trends
As a share of new home closings, single-family home closings have risen from last year while the share belonging to attached units has fallen. Single-family home closings made up 39 of 40 new home closings after accounting for five of six a year earlier. Meanwhile, attached units made up one of 40 new home closings after making up one of six closings a year earlier.

Foreclosures and real estate owned (REO) closings fell in December from a year earlier, but remained a drag on the market. Together, foreclosures plus REO closings made up 30.6% of existing home closings, down from 49.6% a year earlier. The percentage of existing home closings involving foreclosures dropped to 11.3% in December from 26.0% a year earlier while REO closings as a percentage of existing home closings fell to 19.3% from 23.6% a year earlier.

Source: Housing Intelligence

Source: Matt Power, Senior Marketing Consultant, (805) 845.2660

San Diego Housing Market Continues to Rebound

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While job growth is the traditional driver of new home demand, the San Diego market recovery has been spurred on by primarily a dwindling of inventory, coupled with a continuation of government sponsored low interest rates. Analysts believe unsold inventory levels will remain relatively low for at least the next 12 to 18 months giving job growth in San Diego County an opportunity to rebound completely over the next few years. The increase in jobs is expected to give “new legs” to the current inventory depleted market rebound – giving us at least a three to five year upcycle.

Like many of the past housing market upcycles, overheated demand for subdivision land in the traditional location hotbeds, such as North Coastal San Diego County, have begun to spill over into communities located further east and inland – where there is a slightly greater number of available properties for sale.

SAN MARCOS SHOWING STRONG GROWTH
Available subdivision land in North San Diego County communities, especially San Marcos, is experiencing a significant increase in demand from builders. While we saw residential subdivision land typically trading for around $200,000 a finished lot in early 2012, we are now seeing in the first quarter of 2013 lots going as high as $285,000 a finished lot.

The finished lot value for residential subdivision land in San Marcos has increased in excess of 40% over the last year!

The City of San Marcos is undergoing significant upgrades with an expanding university town with over 14,000 full time students now at California State University at San Marcos (compared to just 9,722 students in 2011), the recent opening of the new “high technology” public high scool, and the remodel of San Marcos High School. The $180 million remodel project was one of the largest high school construction projects in the State of California and now boasts higher test scores than some of the public high schools located within the prestigious school districts situated along North Coastal San Diego County (south of Oceanside). Planned development of the approximately 1,000-unit University District mixed-use master plan beginning in 2014 (to be located near the CSU Campus and 78 Freeway) and the new linear mixed-use development plans running several blocks east and west (parallel to San Marcos Boulevard and the upscale Discovery Hills single family neighborhoods), will transform much of San Marcos beyond its “poor man’s Carlsbad” traditional reputation.

AREAS TO KEEP AN EYE ON
With the present market momentum continuing its course in the near term and moving towards complete restoration of the residential real estate values lost in San Diego County during the recession, Team San Diego sees the next generation of residential subdivision land opportunities in North San Diego County also migrating up the 15 Freeway (north of Escondido) to communities such as Bonsall (with outstanding schools) and the unincorporated Pala Mesa area (with the widening of Highway 76 / Mission Road – serving as a four lane expressway connecting Interstate 5 with Interstate 15).

Source: Bob McFarland, Marketing Consultant, (858) 568-7428 ext. 12

Bay Area: Back to the future—Are condos the new apartments???

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I have to admit it…I was dead wrong. I thought (like many others) that condos were going to be dead for a while.  Many people really don’t want to live in a condo but they end up “settling” for them because of the relative affordability closer to job bases. As prices in the Bay Area have resumed their pre-collapse march up at 10+% per year, condos are making resurgence.

Given the resurgence in attached for-sale product in the Bay Area, the “highest and best” use has now probably switched back to condos from apartments.  And it probably won’t be long before we see the reverse of what happened a few years ago where condo sites were re-entitled to apartment deals.  Now we’ll start seeing apartment sites re-entitled to townhomes and condos. If you have one of these sites feel free to give us a call to help evaluate all the options in the fast changing market.  There are many factors to consider in making this kind of decision; our in-fill experts can help you juggle all the factors to position your site for maximum sales proceeds!

http://www.contracostatimes.com/business/ci_22613042/bay-area-condos-tight-supply-has-buyers-scrambling.html

Source: Steve Reilly, Marketing Consultant, (925) 368-3128

FRESNO: Fat Tuesday, Skinny Inventory

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Now is the time for homebuilders to open their stalled legacy projects. Beazer Homes recently closed out The Groves at Sunnyside Point, their neighborhood adjacent to KB Home’s Olive Lane new home community located in Sunnyside Fresno. New homebuilders will not have to compete as hard for new home buyers shopping the area.

HOME PRICES
According to the California Association of Realtors, Fresno County home prices increased 15.3%, but sales were down 22.2% from the previous year. Madera County saw prices increase 36.1%, but sales were down 24.4% from the previous year. However, sales are looking up with a 19.2% increase in sales from the previous month in Madera County.

December 2012 County Sales and Price Activity

Median Sold Price of Existing Single-Family Homes

# of Sales
County

12-Dec

12-Nov

11-Dec

MTM% Chg

YTY% Chg

MTM% Chg

YTY% Chg
Fresno

$157,620

$148,240

$136,740

6.3%

15.3%

-2.5%

-22.2%
Madera

$144,290

$113,330

$106,000

27.3%

36.1%

19.2%

-24.4%

Source: California Association of Realtors

UNSOLD INVENTORY & TIME ON MARKET
According to Land Advisors Organization research, unsold inventory in Fresno County decreased 7.3% from the previous year and Madera County decreased 47.4% from the previous year. The median time on market decreased 24.1% in Fresno County and increased 25.4% in Madera County from the previous year.

December 2012 County Unsold Inventory and Time on Market

Unsold Inventory Index

Median Time on Market
County

12-Dec

12-Nov

11-Dec

12-Dec

12-Nov

11-Dec
Fresno

3.8 Months

4.2 Months

4.1 Months

26.4 Days

26.3 Days

34.8 Days
Madera

2 Months

3.2 Months

3.8 Months

64.6 Days

27.9 Days

51.5 Days

Source: California Association of Realtors

FINISHED LOT INVENTORY
Home Buyer demand is escalating fast.  Quality resale inventory is sparse.  If you own 10 or more acres of land in the path of development, you should be at the City processing a subdivision map faster than Mardi Gras beads flying from a balcony overlooking Bourbon Street.  If you are not familiar with the entitlement process please contact me so I can help get you started.

NEW DEVELOPMENT
Fresno developers plan medical campus at Millerton Lake. FULL STORY

Source: Mark Utman, Marketing Consultant, (559) 549-6326

NorCal: 2005… Are we there yet?

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It wasn’t that long ago when it seemed like the residential land market would never leave the cellar.  Amazingly, it seems that someone flicked a switch and land prices are surging to what seem like pricing we saw at the height of the market in 2005.

We are not there yet, but getting close.  How can this be when it seems like new home pricing and the re-sale market are still a good 30-40% below peak pricing?  With the sub-contractor trades still aggressively competing for work and construction materials that remain readily available at fair market pricing, the cost savings from the builders fall directly to the land.

I think it won’t be long before we see the associated trade and construction costs begin to rise and we see a plateau in land pricing.  Land owners need to catch the wave and enjoy the ride.

2005 vs 2012 Market Price Line

Source: Ryan Long, Senior Marketing Consultant, (916) 784-3329 ext. 16

California Division: 2012 Year in Review

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LAO-CA Infographic 2012 YIR

Source: Tom Reimers, President, (949) 852-8288 x28

San Diego County’s Land Market On Its Own High Speed Train

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Unlike our Sacramento politicians’ boondoggle, San Diego’s land market has been picking up steam faster than a bullet train over the last few months.  According to reliable reports, over 2,400 new residential units were sold last year in San Diego County:

  • 1st Quarter 2012:   475 units sold
  • 2nd Quarter 2012:  680 units sold
  • 3rd Quarter 2012:   631 units sold
  • 4th Quarter 2012:   642 units sold

It is also important to note that approximately one third of the actively selling new home developments in 2012 consisted of condominiums or townhomes.  We expect that percentage to dramatically rise in the near term as monthly rental rates in many parts of the county now exceed monthly mortgage payments (i.e., P.I.T.I. and association dues), available at new construction condominium and townhouse communities.

Job Creation on the Rise

Evidence that this market momentum is growing can be seen in the sales volume reported for the traditionally slow 4th Quarter holiday season where sales exceeded the previous quarter and there was approximately a 30% increase in comparison to the 4th Quarter of 2011 (i.e., 494 sales reported in the 4th Quarter of 2011 versus 642 sales accounted for in the 4th Quarter of 2012).

Absorption Rates Expected to Increase

Although the average rate of absorptions of actively selling developments is still in the 2.0 sales a month range, a rapid decline in available new home supply is expected to boost absorption rates on remaining projects in the near term. For example, there were 113 actively selling new home developments in San Diego County during the 4th Quarter of 2011.  At the end of 2012, there were only 73 actively selling projects – that’s a 55% decline.  Approximately 60 projects sold out over the course of 2012, while only approximately 20 new projects entered the market during the same period of time.  Among the remaining new home developments in the County, approximately 2,233 units are left to either enter the market or currently remain unsold.  This equates to approximately an 11 month supply based upon a continuation of new home sales at a minimum of last year’s rate (i.e., approximately 2,428 annual sales reflecting a recovery beginning in the 2nd Quarter of 2012).  This bodes well for the health of the market going forward given 2012 sales did not pick up steam until the 2nd Quarter. Thus 2013 sales are expected to exceed last year’s total.  Historically, approximately a 12 month supply of unsold inventory (units offered for sale and remaining unsold), is considered approaching a supply/demand balance.

4thQ Actively Selling Projects

 Many housing analysts refer to the housing market rebound in San DiegoCounty and the nation as a “jobless recovery.”  While there is no question that the combination of a dwindling inventory and historically low interest rates have jump started the market, job creation in San Diego County over the last year has increased notably (approximately 29,000 annual net new jobs by year’s end in 2012 as estimated by Point Loma University Economist Lynn Reaser). This is a major factor which has largely flown under the radar due to the publicity related to a declining but relatively high unemployment rate (8.4%).

The Land Advisors Organization Team in San Diego is actively sourcing new land development and home building opportunities.  Call us today before this train is out of sight!

Source: Bob McFarland, Marketing Consultant, (858) 568-7428 ext. 12

2012 Ends with Numerous Year-End Closings in Southwest Riverside County

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The year of 2012 ended with the most activity in southwest Riverside since the peak of activity in 2006. In December alone, public homebuilders closed on over 900 lots. The lot condition ranged from finished lots to unimproved mapped lots. One of the year end highlights of 2012 were two tentative map lot projects contained within the Temecula School District boundary with Land Advisors brokering the sales. The two maps combined to generate over 300 lots and were bought by two public homebuilders.

On the apartment front, a notable fully leased apartment complex is in escrow at a rumored sales price of +/- $215,000 per door.  While this per door number might seem low when compared to the coastal market, the comp will represent the highest per door sale since 2008.

The above transactions are a result of a number of factors from low interest rates to lack of housing supply available to both buyers and renters. In 2012, we saw a decrease in foreclosure sales as well as REO sales and higher sales volume all together when compared to 2011. As we move forward in the New Year, home sale prices are forecasted to receive upward pressure because supply is expected to remain flat.

Source: Mitch Casillas, Marketing Consultant, (949) 852-8288 ext. 23

Fresno County Approved TTM Lots Going Once, Twice…

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Land Advisors Organization is pleased to say SHOUT! the handful of approved tentative tract maps (TTM) available for sale within Clovis’ city limits have been receiving multiple offers.  The City of Fresno is next to follow where lots previously located in “B” and “C” locations are quickly becoming the new “A” lots.   The time is now for developers and homebuilders to pounce on every reasonably priced TTM.  Call LAO’s Fresno office at (559) 549-6326 for a current list of available inventory.

POLL:  

HOME SALES:

  • Distressed homes sales are on the decline. FULL STORY
  • Home prices are up 18% from a year ago. FULL STORY

NEW DEVELOPMENTS: On November 7, 2012 The Madera County Board of Supervisors re-approved 4-0 the 1,656-acre, 5,190-home Tesoro Viejo planned urban community proposed by McCaffrey Group.

Source: Mark Utman, Marketing Consultant, (559) 549-6326

Central Coast Sales are Climbing!

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The Central Coast’s South Santa Barbara County submarket, which includes Carpinteria, Santa Barbara and Goleta, has seen a surge in sales volume to date with 199 closed transactions this past October.  Sales volume is WAY up and our trend line has now officially bounced above our 2005 sales volume numbers.  With all of this activity our current median price of $620,000 has also bumped up 2% from this time last year leaving us with one question … Where is the future inventory going to come from?  With thinning resale opportunities and virtually no foreclosed homes on the market prices are sure to jump again over the next six months. 

So what does this mean for Central Coast home builders looking for land opportunities along the Central Coast?  Finding the right land position has traditionally been very difficult in this supply constrained market so if you are a home builder looking to build along the Central Coast, please contact Matt Power at Land Advisors Organization’s Santa Barbara office at 805.845.2660.

Source: Matt Power, Senior Marketing Consultant, (805) 845.2660

LA – Selling Fast

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As the end of 2012 approaches, the Los Angeles infill residential market continues to see increasing momentum in both new home sales and demand for new land development.

Much of the demand for new projects in the Los Angeles basin stems from the steady flow of new home sales at projects throughout the county.  In particular, there are several townhome projects in the San Gabriel Valley including Azusa, Baldwin Park and Covina that have seen absorption rates in the four to six units per month range.  In Northeast Los Angeles, Pulte’s Mosaic, Heyday’s Buzz Court look to be on pace to selling out around the New Year, while Williams Homes Olive Glen project in the South Bay was named the fastest selling community in the southland.

Buyer demand for new attached or detached homes is triggering, both builders and developers, to get more aggressive when it comes to land deals. Many are even considering B and C locations. While there is not a significant supply of developed lots available in the infill markets, our team is beginning to see progressively more tract map and permit applications being processed in many cities. Through our vast database Land Advisors avidly tracks deals that are being processed and approved, allowing us the ability to tailor information to meet any acquisition criteria.  Whether it’s 5, 50 or 200 units you are looking for we can guide you to deals that meet your specific goals and needs.

Buyer Demand has triggered both builders and developers to get more aggressive for land deals.

Related Article:

http://ourweekly.com/los-angeles/olive-glen-called-fastest-selling-new-home-community-southland

Source: Chris Gomez-Ortigoza, Marketing Consultant, (626) 378-9840 x14

SACRAMENTO EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS GETTING BETTER

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Now that the election is over, everyone in the homebuilding industry can take a collective deep breath and get back to work.  In spite of our worst fears about policy failures, taxes and over regulation, new homes are selling in the region and selling well.  Even before the election, anxiety over the housing market seemed to be subsiding while confidence growing.  There are many factors including supply shortages, interest rates, and relative affordability but most notable, have been  the employment numbers for the Sacramento region.  They have finally dipped below the double digit level and it has provided a boost for the region so severely squashed by the residential market downturn.  If the trend continues on the employment side, look for positive growth in new housing no matter what our government looks like.

http://www.bizjournals.com/sacramento/news/2012/10/19/area-unemployment-dips-single-digits.html

http://www.bizjournals.com/sacramento/blog/sanford-nax/2012/10/job-market-improves-in-some-professions.html

http://www.builderonline.com/legislation/what-obamas-re-election-means-for-housing.aspx?utm_source=newsletter&utm_content=jump&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BBU_110812&day=2012-11-08

Source: Jim Radler, Senior Marketing Consultant, (916) 784-3329 ext. 11

Why is the market so hot?!!!!

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It always boils down to the fundamentals — Supply and Demand. We know that the Bay Area is always supply constrained and the real estate collapse took many of the higher density projects and put them in a deep freeze, meaning we had even fewer new projects adding to the supply from 2008 ’til today. Now we have a new phenomenon, for all the people that got foreclosed on and were supposedly going to be renters the rest of their lives, it turns out they still want to buy homes and for the many that got foreclosed early in the cycle their time in the penalty box is over.

http://www.insidebayarea.com/business/ci_21865117/foreclosure-victims-buying-homes-again

And as foreclosures in CA and the Bay Area continue their downward trajectory, people waiting for that ‘distressed’ buying opportunity may never see it materialize.

http://www.foreclosureradar.com/foreclosure-report/foreclosure-report-september-2012

Rather than competing with 10-20 other offers as soon as a ‘bank-owned’ home hits the market, buyers are finding the process of buying a new home to be more appealing as builders ramp up community production.

http://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/Bay-Area-new-home-construction-rebounds-3986773.php#page-1

Source: Steve Reilly, Marketing Consultant, (925) 368-3128