SACRAMENTO EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS GETTING BETTER

Now that the election is over, everyone in the homebuilding industry can take a collective deep breath and get back to work.  In spite of our worst fears about policy failures, taxes and over regulation, new homes are selling in the region and selling well.  Even before the election, anxiety over the housing market seemed to be subsiding while confidence growing.  There are many factors including supply shortages, interest rates, and relative affordability but most notable, have been  the employment numbers for the Sacramento region.  They have finally dipped below the double digit level and it has provided a boost for the region so severely squashed by the residential market downturn.  If the trend continues on the employment side, look for positive growth in new housing no matter what our government looks like.

http://www.bizjournals.com/sacramento/news/2012/10/19/area-unemployment-dips-single-digits.html

http://www.bizjournals.com/sacramento/blog/sanford-nax/2012/10/job-market-improves-in-some-professions.html

http://www.builderonline.com/legislation/what-obamas-re-election-means-for-housing.aspx?utm_source=newsletter&utm_content=jump&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BBU_110812&day=2012-11-08

Source: Jim Radler, Senior Marketing Consultant, (916) 784-3329 ext. 11

Sacramento is booming…

As far as residential land goes.

These past few months have been eye opening on the residential land front.  Just when folks were beginning to write the rest of 2012 off as another down and out year like 2011, someone “poked the bear” and got things moving again.  The past few months in Sacramento have been on fire with the builders knocking down the door trying to grab land positions in core markets.  With the finished lot inventories drying up, everything from paper to finished lots have been targets for both public and private builders.  It is reminiscent of the bump we saw in 2009 and 2010, but with the pipeline of finished lots dwindling, REO product drying up and interest rates in the cellar, this party may be just getting started.

Link:

http://www.bizjournals.com/sacramento/print-edition/2012/10/05/home-price-spurt-correction-new-bubble.html

Source: Ryan Long, Senior Marketing Consultant, (916) 784-3329 ext. 16

Sacramento… Healing Period?

Over the last 6 months, the Sacramento region has posted solid housing numbers to give the new home builders optimism for the future of this area.  Stuck in the mud for the last 2-3 years, the region looks like it is pulling itself off the bottom and headed in a better direction.  Although REO sales are still plentiful compared to 2005, the trends are positive.

The region should see approximately 15,000 REO sales this year, but that is 15% less than 2011 and 30% of peak 2008 numbers (22,131).  New home sales for the region are expected to almost double what they were for 2011, climbing up well over 3,000 new home sales for 2012.  It also important to note that currently in the region, new home sales account for approximately 3.4% of total home sales and that at the peak of the market, new home sales accounted for approximately 26.3% of the overall home sale market.

With this further evidence of a bottoming of the housing market and plenty of room to mature, builders have anticipated the next boom and they are back buying again. Approximately a half dozen deals have been purchased over the last few months with more builder deals currently in escrow.

Source: Jim Radler, Senior Marketing Consultant, (916) 784-3329 ext. 11

California Dreamin’

Seems like the herd is gathering steam again in the Sacramento region and in the greater California market.  That herd I am talking about are the homebuilders.  It’s funny when a couple of builder deals get completed, it draws in the rest of the pack like a magnet and we are starting to see that in and around Sacramento.  DR Horton just closed on a deal in Folsom, Standard Pacific picked up about 100 lots in Rocklin and now the rest of the builders are combing the market looking for that next deal.  This is great news not only for the industry, but for developers and land owners.  If the new home construction numbers continue like they are in the Sacramento region, finished lots in core markets will be long gone by next year. FULL STORY

Source: Ryan Long, Senior Marketing Consultant, (916) 784-3329 ext. 16

Sacramento: Where’s the Dirt?

The Sacramento region finally appears to be emerging from the homebuilding doldrums.  Over the last several months, homebuilders seem to have a new found confidence as new home absorption levels have begun to tick up to levels not seen for several years.

Pricing on the other hand, is still lagging with maybe a small bump in appreciation.  All of this said, ready-to-build lots are becoming scarce within the Sacramento submarket, and at this rate, some areas could possibly end 2013 with a lot supply of zero.

The key drivers to getting builders back to Sacramento will be continued increased scarcity of deals in the San Francisco Bay Area, in addition to sustained new homes sales that we have seen in the area over the last several months.

The Wall Street Journal recently reported that the recent rise in homebuilding could be thwarted by an unlikely factor, a shortage of land in desirable locations.  Homebuilders are realizing they cannot focus strictly on the Bay Area locales just due to the fact that high land prices and land scarcity will forbid them from ramping up deliveries and allowing them to grow organically.  If they want to be able to produce new home delivery volume, they will have to start looking in the Sacramento region as well as some parts of the Central Valley.  If and when they move eastward, we will start to see homebuilders look at “paper” lot or entitlement deals, where in the past they were only focused on finished lots.  Time will tell.

Source: Ryan Long, Senior Marketing Consultant, (916) 784-3329 ext. 16

Has Sacramento Sunk to the Bottom?

  • Property assessments declined 2.9% in the four-county Sacramento area during the 2011-2012 fiscal year.  Read more: www.sacbee.com
  • Distress sales continue to weigh down real estate prices in the Sacramento area, which remained flat during the most recent four-month period.  Read more: www.sacbee.com
  • Last week Sacramento’s arena committee unveiled funding options for a new sports and entertainment center that would use a mix of private and public dollars and user fees.  Read more: www.bizjournals.com
  • Matching federal funds for the Natomas Levee Improvement Project are currently being negotiated at the federal level and should have some direction in November. The hope is to have an “A99” Flood Level Designation by summer 2012.  Check the following website for more information: http://www.safcanlip.org/facts.html.
  • Unemployment is still above 12% for the Sacramento region. Sacramento residents are feeling anxiety over what the State may do with its employees if budget issues continue.
  • Bids are due Wednesday (9/14/11) from interested parties in the unsold condos at the L Street Lofts in midtown.  The $55 million L Street Lofts were originally built by prominent developer Sotiris Kolokotronis. Onewest Bank foreclosed in April on 70 unsold units at the seven-story 92-unit signature condominium project in midtown that struggled to find buyers. 
  • Fixed mortgage rates fell this week to the lowest levels in six decades. But few Americans (including Sacramento home buyers) can take advantage of the rates to refinance or buy a home. Read more: www.builderonline.com 

Source: Jim Radler, Senior Marketing Consultant, (916) 784-3329 x11