San Diego County’s Land Market On Its Own High Speed Train

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Unlike our Sacramento politicians’ boondoggle, San Diego’s land market has been picking up steam faster than a bullet train over the last few months.  According to reliable reports, over 2,400 new residential units were sold last year in San Diego County:

  • 1st Quarter 2012:   475 units sold
  • 2nd Quarter 2012:  680 units sold
  • 3rd Quarter 2012:   631 units sold
  • 4th Quarter 2012:   642 units sold

It is also important to note that approximately one third of the actively selling new home developments in 2012 consisted of condominiums or townhomes.  We expect that percentage to dramatically rise in the near term as monthly rental rates in many parts of the county now exceed monthly mortgage payments (i.e., P.I.T.I. and association dues), available at new construction condominium and townhouse communities.

Job Creation on the Rise

Evidence that this market momentum is growing can be seen in the sales volume reported for the traditionally slow 4th Quarter holiday season where sales exceeded the previous quarter and there was approximately a 30% increase in comparison to the 4th Quarter of 2011 (i.e., 494 sales reported in the 4th Quarter of 2011 versus 642 sales accounted for in the 4th Quarter of 2012).

Absorption Rates Expected to Increase

Although the average rate of absorptions of actively selling developments is still in the 2.0 sales a month range, a rapid decline in available new home supply is expected to boost absorption rates on remaining projects in the near term. For example, there were 113 actively selling new home developments in San Diego County during the 4th Quarter of 2011.  At the end of 2012, there were only 73 actively selling projects – that’s a 55% decline.  Approximately 60 projects sold out over the course of 2012, while only approximately 20 new projects entered the market during the same period of time.  Among the remaining new home developments in the County, approximately 2,233 units are left to either enter the market or currently remain unsold.  This equates to approximately an 11 month supply based upon a continuation of new home sales at a minimum of last year’s rate (i.e., approximately 2,428 annual sales reflecting a recovery beginning in the 2nd Quarter of 2012).  This bodes well for the health of the market going forward given 2012 sales did not pick up steam until the 2nd Quarter. Thus 2013 sales are expected to exceed last year’s total.  Historically, approximately a 12 month supply of unsold inventory (units offered for sale and remaining unsold), is considered approaching a supply/demand balance.

4thQ Actively Selling Projects

 Many housing analysts refer to the housing market rebound in San DiegoCounty and the nation as a “jobless recovery.”  While there is no question that the combination of a dwindling inventory and historically low interest rates have jump started the market, job creation in San Diego County over the last year has increased notably (approximately 29,000 annual net new jobs by year’s end in 2012 as estimated by Point Loma University Economist Lynn Reaser). This is a major factor which has largely flown under the radar due to the publicity related to a declining but relatively high unemployment rate (8.4%).

The Land Advisors Organization Team in San Diego is actively sourcing new land development and home building opportunities.  Call us today before this train is out of sight!

Source: Bob McFarland, Marketing Consultant, (858) 568-7428 ext. 12

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Central Coast Sales are Climbing!

The Central Coast’s South Santa Barbara County submarket, which includes Carpinteria, Santa Barbara and Goleta, has seen a surge in sales volume to date with 199 closed transactions this past October.  Sales volume is WAY up and our trend line has now officially bounced above our 2005 sales volume numbers.  With all of this activity our current median price of $620,000 has also bumped up 2% from this time last year leaving us with one question … Where is the future inventory going to come from?  With thinning resale opportunities and virtually no foreclosed homes on the market prices are sure to jump again over the next six months. 

So what does this mean for Central Coast home builders looking for land opportunities along the Central Coast?  Finding the right land position has traditionally been very difficult in this supply constrained market so if you are a home builder looking to build along the Central Coast, please contact Matt Power at Land Advisors Organization’s Santa Barbara office at 805.845.2660.

Source: Matt Power, Senior Marketing Consultant, (805) 845.2660

Fresno & Madera Counties Heating Up

Good news, Madera is on the rebound.  Better news, you can still find improved finished lots below replacement cost….better hurry because prices are expected to increase!  FULL STORY

VACANT FINISHED LOT INVENTORY BY THE NUMBERS

CLOSINGS: August 2012 – Land Advisors closed seven vacant lots within Tract 5351 to a private homebuilder.  The private homebuilder bought the lots to expand its presence in the City of Clovis.

HOME SALES: Existing homes in Fresno are selling fast!  In June, Fresno resales reported a median of 43 days on market compared to a median of 90 days on market at the peak.  This represents a 52.2% decrease in days on market for Fresno.  FULL STORY

FEES: City development fees for Coalinga have been waived until April 2013.  Contact Matt Power at (805) 845-2660 or Mark Utman at (559) 549-6326 for further details.

NEW DEVELOPMENTS: The controversial high speed rail construction along Highway 99 has been delayed until 2014. FULL STORY

Source: Mark Utman, Marketing Consultant, (559) 549-6326

New 360 Acre Development Coming to Monterey County

City of Del Rey Oaks and Brandenburg Properties are preparing to team up to develop 360 acres of undeveloped Fort Ord land.  The City would like to see a low-density residential development and a hotel with condominium units and they would like to see “green, sustainable” development, including the use of cisterns to help with water supplies.  The Del Rey Oaks land is generally located north of South Boundary Road and east of General Jim Moore Boulevard.  Part of the project lies next to Fort Ord acreage the city of Monterey has planned for eventual development. FULL STORY

New Monterey County listing hits LAO

The Central Coast Team of the Land Advisors Organization is pleased to present Parcels D & E featuring 13.51 multi-family acres for ±378 apartment units.  The subject sites are located in Monterey County along scenic U.S. Highway 101, within the northerly reach of California’s Central Coast and in the heart of the famed Salinas Valley. Soledad is known for its natural beauty, moderate climate, and abundant agricultural products. Soledad is now home to more than 17,000 residents with a mix of early 20th century architecture with a charming historic downtown commercial district and vibrant new residential neighborhoods.

Contact: Matt Power at (805) 845-2660 or Jim Radler at (916) 784-3329 for more information on Parcels D & E.

Source: Matt Power, Senior Marketing Consultant, (805) 845-2660

Play Ball in Western Riverside County!

You win some…

The second quarter of 2012 is in the books in West Riverside County and public home builder sentiment is high nationally and locally. Our hopes are that the positive sales pace continues through the second half of the year which should lead to the first inning in what we hope is a long overdue, extra-inning recovery. In addition to that, according to Hanley Wood data for the second quarter, 10 of 13 active new home markets in West Riverside County experienced an increase in new home sale pricing. That’s the good news.

You lose some…

The bad news is that 2012 has yielded few land transactions to discuss because land bank REO properties have been purged from the market (currently LAO has listed one of the few remaining portfolios of bank REO assets, contact if interested) and land values are generally not yet at a level where the 2008-2010 investors would sell. If the market continues to improve however, 2013 should see a number of sales from the investor community to home builders.

Source: Mitch Casillas, Marketing Consultant, (949) 852-8288 ext. 23

Fresno, Spring in its Step?

This winter, Fresno homebuyer traffic is the best we’ve seen in 2+ years! Could it be due to Fresno’s declining unemployment rate?  Or, perhaps it’s the dry warm weather this season?  Either way, homebuilders active in the Fresno marketplace right now are welcoming the new interest from homebuyers with open arms as the spring selling season begins full bloom.

Median new home base prices are hovering around $110 per square foot, which is $60 per square less than peak values in 2006.

News You Can Use from the Fresno/Clovis Submarket…

Valley Builders Optimistic In Spite Of Housing Market: Despite a sea of foreclosures and bargain-priced houses for sale across the central San Joaquin Valley, homebuilders are still finding a reason to raise the walls and roofs on new homes… MORE

More on the Activity in Fresno’s New Home Market:  New home construction seems to be on an upswing in neighborhoods across the Valley. And builders are optimistic that the market is starting to turn. (This week’s) story in The Bee tells you what some Fresno homebuilders have done to get through the downturn and who is buying new, but it doesn’t cover everyone.

Here’s a look at what other builders in town have done to attract buyers along with more from homebuyers that we couldn’t squeeze into the final story… READ ON

Clovis City Council Oks Map Laying Out City’s Future:  A plan that lays out the future neighborhoods of Clovis was approved Monday (2/13) night by the City Council, despite fears from some rural residents that it won’t adequately protect their land from urban intrusion. …Rural residents who live on large lots east of the city say a proposed open-space buffer of 100 feet is not wide enough to shield their homes from the housing tracts of smaller-lot homes that would be allowed under the new general plan… READ ON or, WATCH VIDEO via KFSN.

California’s High-Speed Rail Project Continues despite Criticism: California’s high-speed rail project is already projected to take longer and be more costly than originally projected, but the obstacles facing it are not yet over. Governor Jerry Brown is trying to push the project through the Legislature this year, though… MORE

Source: Mark Utman, Marketing Consultant, (559) 449-4500

Window of Opportunity in Ventura County

Land Advisors’ Ventura County Team (comprised of Michel Faris, Randy Coe, and Richard Byrd) are pleased to offer an exciting new listing in the Ventura County submarket. The new ±8-acre listing, known as Northbank Meadows is a rare multi-family development opportunity in the highly desirable yet extremely supply constrained City of Ventura.

Historically, homes within Ventura County are highly sought after by homebuyers because of the County’s easy-going, high-quality beach lifestyle, in addition to its proximity to L.A. County job centers. Longstanding development constraints have kept Ventura County from over-development.  Amid the slow growth, land values in the submarkets are holding steady and homebuilders and developers are taking another glance at opportunities in the area as the macroeconomic environment improves.

County Home Sales Up; Median Price Falls via VCStar.comVentura County home sales increased slightly last month, while median prices continued to drop despite record-low mortgage rates… DataQuick reported that 561 homes sold in Ventura County in January — an increase of 2% compared with the same time last year. The sales include new homes and resold single-family homes and condos.  DataQuick also reported the median price of homes in Ventura County at $322,500, a 7.9% decrease compared with the same time last year. Read more

Source: Michel Faris, Marketing Consultant, (949) 852-8288 x14