The Flipping Indicator – New Projects Vs. Flipped Homes

The previous Landed blog posted by Land Advisors’ Los Angeles Urban Infill Team highlighted the value increases placed on flipped homes throughout a variety of Los Angeles neighborhoods.  (Re-read: Flipping Over L.A.: Out With the Old, In With the New)

For this post, we take our analysis a step further and compare how values of flipped single family detached homes correlate with those of newly constructed small lot detached and townhome units.  Conveniently, two public homebuilders have opened up projects in Northeast Los Angeles within the past week:

  • The first is Pulte Home’s project in Eagle Rock called Mosaic.  The project consists of 18 Small Lot Detached Units.
  • The second is D.R. Horton’s project in Echo Park called 36 on Echo.  The project consists of 36 Townhome units.

The first chart below represents average sales prices for flips that occurred in Eagle Rock and Echo Park.

This second chart below illustrates the asking prices at both new projects.

In comparing the two charts, note that the average square feet of the flips in each neighborhood is between the smallest and largest unit size at each new project.  You can see that the average flip pricing on a price/sq. ft. basis in each neighborhood lands squarely within the expected price/sq. ft. revenues at each project.  On a nominal pricing basis, the project in Echo Park exceeds the average flip values in the neighborhood, while the project in Eagle Rock is in the same range as the flipped homes in the area.

Why is this significant?  In our experience, properly projecting revenues on infill projects is a difficult task and has chased away a fair share of possible builders and developers.  By utilizing the correct data and local market indicators, the Urban Infill Team has created a system that helps instill a sense of comfort on project pricing for planned infill developments.

Land Advisors’ Urban Infill Team was involved in the acquisition of both of the above referenced projects, and our projected pricing was very similar to the values illustrated above.  If you are interested in discussing valuation, acquisitions or dispositions in the Urban Los Angeles market please contact…

Source:  Chris Gomez-Ortigoza, Marketing Consultant, (626) 376-9840 ext. 14; Richard Byrd, Senior Marketing Consultant, (626) 376-9840 ext. 13; and Tim Barden, Marketing Consultant, (949) 852-8288 ext. 30

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Flipping Over L.A.: Out With the Old, In With the New

On March 10th, the Los Angeles Times printed an article by Alejandro Lazo titled, “Investors Flip over Highland Park Homes.”  This article details how investors are purchasing physically and/or financially distressed homes in Highland Park at severely discounted values, and renovating both the interior and exteriors of the homes.  Once the homes are upgraded, the investors put them back onto the market, where they are quickly snatched up by young hipsters and urbanites, yielding great returns for the investors. 

While Lazo’s article does a good job of summarizing the L.A. flip story, his article only begins to illustrate the dramatic home flip activity in the denser, urban areas of Los Angeles. 

In the last 24 months, the Land Advisors Organization Urban Infill Team (Richard Byrd, Tim Barden and Chris Gomez-Ortigoza) has utilized a proprietary method to create a “Flip Analysis” in areas including Hollywood, Silver Lake, Mid-City, Echo Park, Eagle Rock and Pasadena.  In completing each Flip Analysis, the Team is able to draw conclusions and provide concrete information regarding the values that new home buyers place on turnkey homes in a specific neighborhood.  Providing the Flip Analysis creates a level of comfort for builders and developers assessing values, as it illustrates the tremendous demand each flip creates.  More importantly, it shows land buyers the range of values they can expect for a new development in neighborhoods that have little to no recently built, comparable projects. 

The chart below illustrates average values associated with a handful of “Flip Analyses” that we have run during 2011-2012.

The data above represents only averages associated with flips in each neighborhood.  The value increase for individual flips varies with the amount of work done on the home.  Homes with minimal improvements, such as new sod and paint may command a 10-20% increase in value.  Completely gutted and remodeled homes regularly command 50-100% increases in value and more than double in value in some instances. 

As a final snapshot of the Los Angeles infill market, a recent flip analysis illustrated that approximately 18% of flipped homes in Eagle Rock sold for 3% or more above their flipped asking price.  With multiple offers for each property, the turnkey home values are being bid up above asking prices and are creating higher values that positively affect the entire neighborhood.  In today’s market, this is a great sign of what is to come and shows the demand for both new and turnkey homes is alive and well in Los Angeles. 

If you are interested in hearing more about the L.A. Flip Analyses, please contact Land Advisors’ L.A. Urban Infill Team.

Source: Chris Gomez-Ortigoza, Marketing Consultant, (626) 376-9840 ext. 14; Richard Byrd, Senior Marketing Consultant, (626) 376-9840 ext. 13; and Tim Barden, Marketing Consultant, (949) 852-8288 ext. 30

PFAR MLS was used to source all resale information.

Urban Infill Team Facilitates 1031 Exchange Deal in Burbank

Land Advisors Organization – California Division is pleased to announce the closing of a 21-unit apartment building, where Steve Porretta purchased the Burbank property from Essential Assets, LLC for $4,200,000.

Land Advisors’ Urban Infill Team, which is based out of the firm’s Pasadena office, facilitated the multi-family property sale by assisting Mr. Porretta with a 1031 Exchange. 

In 2011, the Team assisted Mr. Porretta with the sale of his Silver Lake property, “Waverly Terrace Townhomes,” which included 63 unimproved townhome lots with a recorded final map.  

Mr. Porretta then needed to find a reinvestment opportunity and looked to Land Advisors’ market knowledge and extensive network of industry contacts for purchase options.  Through its list of industry relationships, the Urban Infill Team was able to source the off-market 21-unit apartment building, and represented Mr. Porretta and Essential Assets, LLC in the transaction.

“Mr. Porretta needed something very specific,” noted Land Advisors’ Senior Marketing Consultant Richard Byrd.  “By calling on our industry contacts we were able to provide several opportunities for Mr. Porretta to choose from.”

Read the Complete Press Release Here 

The Metro Gold Line: a Developer’s Gold Mine

This summer, the Construction Authority awarded the Kiewit Parsons Joint Venture, a $486 million dollar contract to complete the Pasadena to Azusa Gold Line extension project.  Phase 2A is slated to be completed in early 2015, with service running from Downtown Los Angeles to Azusa.  The project will create new Gold Line stations in Arcadia, Monrovia, Duarte, Irwindale, West Azusa and East Azusa.  Each city along the Gold Line intends to utilize these new stations to enhance residential, retail and mixed-use developments within walking distance of each station. 

The goal of these Transit Oriented Developments (TOD) is to increase the use of public transportation, decrease the effects of sprawl and create a more sustainable way of living.  TODs generally extend out a quarter to a half-mile from a transit station.  The existing development around many of the proposed stations lack density and will allow for the acquisition and entitlement of many parcels for a more dense uses. 

Why is this important?

The San Gabriel Valley is one of the strongest real estate sub-markets in all of California.  The area boasts several examples of successful projects built during the last few years that have exceeded sales expectations.  This includes Pulte Homes’s Rosecrest Lane project that averaged sales over $800,000 per home in Pasadena in 2010-2011. 

Recent land acquisitions, including a 5.4-acre industrial site in Monrovia that is now planned for mixed-use, show the propensity of buyers and developers for both traditional and transit-oriented areas of the San Gabriel Valley.  With densities expected to double in close proximity to a number of these stations, an estimated increase of 100 to 300 residential units will be needed to satisfy renter and buyer demand at each station. 

The Los Angeles Infill team is closely monitoring the Gold Line extension, and can answer any questions builders and investors may have in regards to preparing for the “gold rush.”  For more news and events related to the Gold Line, check out www.foothillextension.org.

Source: Chris Gomez-Ortigoza, Marketing Consultant, (626) 376-9840 x14

Urban Infill Update: Multi-Family Market “On Fire!”

A brief Q&A this morning with Land Advisors’ Urban Infill Marketing Consultant, Tim Barden, revealed the following:

  • Demand for multi-family apartment sites in and around the L.A. Basin is WAY up!
  • Hottest selling areas include Hollywood, Pasadena, L.A.’s Westside, and the South San Fernando Valley
  • Existing Class A apartment buildings are selling at record low cap rates
  • Every multi-family developer seems to be trying to get a piece of the action
  • Commentary: With talk of another economic “double-dip,” is multi-family experiencing the same micro-bubble that was seen after the fall of the housing market in ’06/’07?

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