The Flipping Indicator – New Projects Vs. Flipped Homes

The previous Landed blog posted by Land Advisors’ Los Angeles Urban Infill Team highlighted the value increases placed on flipped homes throughout a variety of Los Angeles neighborhoods.  (Re-read: Flipping Over L.A.: Out With the Old, In With the New)

For this post, we take our analysis a step further and compare how values of flipped single family detached homes correlate with those of newly constructed small lot detached and townhome units.  Conveniently, two public homebuilders have opened up projects in Northeast Los Angeles within the past week:

  • The first is Pulte Home’s project in Eagle Rock called Mosaic.  The project consists of 18 Small Lot Detached Units.
  • The second is D.R. Horton’s project in Echo Park called 36 on Echo.  The project consists of 36 Townhome units.

The first chart below represents average sales prices for flips that occurred in Eagle Rock and Echo Park.

This second chart below illustrates the asking prices at both new projects.

In comparing the two charts, note that the average square feet of the flips in each neighborhood is between the smallest and largest unit size at each new project.  You can see that the average flip pricing on a price/sq. ft. basis in each neighborhood lands squarely within the expected price/sq. ft. revenues at each project.  On a nominal pricing basis, the project in Echo Park exceeds the average flip values in the neighborhood, while the project in Eagle Rock is in the same range as the flipped homes in the area.

Why is this significant?  In our experience, properly projecting revenues on infill projects is a difficult task and has chased away a fair share of possible builders and developers.  By utilizing the correct data and local market indicators, the Urban Infill Team has created a system that helps instill a sense of comfort on project pricing for planned infill developments.

Land Advisors’ Urban Infill Team was involved in the acquisition of both of the above referenced projects, and our projected pricing was very similar to the values illustrated above.  If you are interested in discussing valuation, acquisitions or dispositions in the Urban Los Angeles market please contact…

Source:  Chris Gomez-Ortigoza, Marketing Consultant, (626) 376-9840 ext. 14; Richard Byrd, Senior Marketing Consultant, (626) 376-9840 ext. 13; and Tim Barden, Marketing Consultant, (949) 852-8288 ext. 30

They’re Not Just Buying Cars (In San Bernardino Co.)

Chrysler Group, LLC posted increased sales of 34% in March, its biggest increase since 2008.  The private sector continued a 25-month job growth streak, adding 120,000 jobs.  Across the nation, foreclosures had the lowest quarterly total since the final quarter of 2007.

This frankly, is the kind of news that we’ve all been waiting… and hoping… and waiting, to hear.  But in our industry, home sales are all that matter.  So the question is: Do increased car sales, steady job growth and decreased foreclosures translate to the housing market?  We believe they do and want to highlight some of the recent activity in the land markets that “Team San Bernardino” covers.

  1. In Eastvale, Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM) has sold 35 homes since January 1st (yes… 35. It’s not a typo).
  2. In neighboring Mira Loma, Richmond American (NYSE: MDC) is averaging 4 sales per month through the start of the year.
  3. After opening just three weeks ago, Meritage Homes (NYSE: MTH) has sold 5 homes in its Rancho Cucamonga project, Whispering Ranch.
  4. Beazer Homes (NYSE: BZH) is continuing to sell well in its Yucaipa and Upland projects, averaging approximately 4 sales per month in each project.

So Here’s the Trend…

Improved absorptions lead to decreased lot inventory.  Decreased lot inventory leads to dwindling pipelines.  And thus, dwindling pipelines lead to increased land acquisitions!

So stay steadfast brothers and sisters!!  We are nearing the end of the proverbial tunnel.

Source: Winn Galloway, Senior Marketing Consultant and Doug Jorritsma, Senior Marketing Consultant. You can reach them both at (949) 852-8288.

Lots of Lumber in the Air in Coastal North San Diego Co.

With Super Bowl Sunday behind us, several homebuilders are kicking off new projects in anticipation of a strong spring selling season.  A quick drive around the North San Diego County submarket provides some optimism on the strength of the local building community….

  • In Carlsbad, Shea Homes is grading along Poinsettia Lane and Cassia Road, and Taylor Morrison is grading along Black Rail Road for new projects. Models should be under construction in the next few months.  Also on Black Rail, Warmington Homes is finishing a new phase of their Poinsettia Ridge project which should be available for move-in soon.
  • The Tides at Carlsbad, a 27-lot project along the freeway at Poinsettia Lane by K. Hovnanian is in full swing and selling.
  • The La Costa Condominiums, a large project being framed along La Costa Blvd., just east of El Camino Real is being developed by a local investment group to be held as rental condominiums.  Completion is expected by the end of the year.
  • Further south, The Bungalows project by Fieldstone Communities stands out.  From the freeway, you can see the unique red treated lumber being used for the framing.
  • Davidson Communities has two projects gearing up for release.  Arista at the Crosby is underway with models available to preview in the next few weeks, and Miraval at Torrey Highlands has also started moving dirt with an onsite sales trailer already open for previews.
  • Pulte Homes is also under construction in Torrey Highlands with their Latitude project.  Models should be open soon.

After a prolonged lull in new home construction, seeing so many new housing project starts in the market is very encouraging. Land prices are now stabilized in North San Diego County, and Land Advisors sees great values in the market for both finished lots and future entitlement deals.  Please check out our current listings for La Costa and The Lakes Above Rancho Santa Fe.

Source: David Landes, Marketing Consultant, (858) 568-7428