Are Some East Bay Submarkets Now Overcorrected?

Take this into account… According to Real Facts, the average 3 bed/2 bath apartment in Dublin is currently renting for $2,470 per month.  Compare this to the typical monthly payment based on a $450,000 mortgage at a 4.0% rate; the fully amortized payment is only $2,150 per month. Adding property taxes at 1.1% increases the monthly payment to $2,562. Finally, adding a couple more hundred dollars for homeowners’ association costs and/or insurance brings the total monthly housing cost to approximately $2,760.

While this example of home ownership is a few hundred dollars more than the average Dublin rental, it is also based on pre-tax income. To paint a true picture we need to factor in the tax benefit of ownership. In the case of our example above, the total interest and property tax deduction should be approximately $20,000 per year.  Assuming the potential homebuyer is within the 25% marginal bracket, this deduction is the equivalent of a $5,000 per year tax savings, or approximately $415 per month. Taking this into account the true cost of ownership is only $2,345 per month, which is $125 per month less than the average 3 bed/2 bath rental in Dublin.

While all this may not mean house prices are finished declining or that sales are going to double anytime soon, we can definitely read it as a sign that we have reached a key point in the housing cycle, and that bottom has to be close… if we haven’t already hit it!

Source: Steve Reilly, Marketing Consultant, (925) 368-3128

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